Istat: GDP returns to decline 0.2% in the first quarter, zero growth in France. Inflation slows to 6.2% in April

After four quarters of sustained growth, GDP started declining again in the first quarter of 2022: expressed in series-related values ​​with the 2015 reference year, corrected for calendar effects and adjusted for seasonally, fell 0.2% over the previous quarter. On a trend basis, it grew by 5.8%. This was announced by Istat, showing that the first quarter had one business day less than the previous quarter and one more business day than the first quarter of 2021.

Key factors

The cyclical variation is the synthesis of an increase in value added in the agricultural, forestry and fishing sector, a decrease in the value of services and a constant nature in industry. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the national component (total inventory) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component, Istat explains. The initial estimate – Istat determines – has, as always, a temporary nature.

Change earned in 2022 at +2.2%

The change obtained for 2022 is equal to + 2.2%. This was stated by Istat by publishing data regarding the trend of GDP in the first quarter of the year, which as we mentioned returned to decline on a cyclical basis after four positive quarters. Instead, the whole of 2021 was marked by quarterly growth: +0.3% for the first, +2.7% for the second, +2.5% for the third and +0.7% for the fourth. On the other hand, Istat talks about a “very sustainable” trend increase in GDP.

GDP of others

Unlike the GDP of Germany It grew 0.2% in the first quarter despite the impact of the war in Ukraine. This is the first estimate released by the Federal Statistical Institute Destatis. In the last quarter of 2021, the German economy recorded a decline of 0.3% cyclically. at Spain GDP grew 0.3% in the first quarter of 2022, well below the 2.2% recorded in the previous three months. INE shows the impact of the Omicron variable of coronavirus and the Russian invasion on last quarter data. Compared to the first quarter of 2021, GDP growth was 6.4%. Sensitive is the slowdown in economic growth in France. The gross domestic product in the first quarter recorded zero growth according to the indicators of the statistics institute Insee, which estimated a previous economic growth of 0.3%. The decline in household consumption has weighed on the slowdown. Instead, French fourth-quarter GDP grew 0.8% (the figure revised by Insee was 0.1%) after hitting +7% for the whole of 2021.

Inflation slows to 6.2% in April

Inflation slowed in April after nine months of acceleration. According to Istat’s preliminary estimates, the National Consumer Price Index for the Whole Community (Nic), Total Tobacco, registered an increase of 0.2% month over month and 6.2% year over year. (from +6.5% from the previous month). The deceleration in trend-based inflation is mainly due to energy commodity prices (growth from +50.9% in March to +42.4%) and to regulated energy prices (from +94,6% to +71.4%) and to unregulated energy sources ( from +36.4% to +31.7%).

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