What is the relationship between physicists and economists? More than it sounds, but the combined effort to get a can of canned food without using a can opener, as in the famous Kenneth Boulding joke, has nothing to do with it. The goal this time around is more ambitious: to collaborate to make predictions about a country’s competitiveness without (only) paying attention to its GDP. Statistical physics models have been published to generate an algorithm capable of predicting regional and global wealth. The challenge facing a team of scientists Fermi Center From Rome, led by Professor Luciano Petroneiro, who ten years ago invented a specialty,Economic fitness and complexity”, which, starting with the analysis of hundreds of different data – exports above all, but also life expectancy, type of production, pollution – attempts to reconstruct the industrial potential of countries and regions. Or rather, it succeeds, if I end up there world bank It has adopted principles and European Commission It takes into account the fitness index to evaluate national plans for the next generation of the European Union. Now, a new study also analyzes the green potential of regions and countries.
The basic assumption is simple, or almost: the more complex a country’s exports, the greater its competitiveness and growth potential, especially in the case of investments in environmentally sustainable technologies. By comparing fitness and GDP, the undeclared potential of the state is shown: on these bases, for example, China and India are expected to continue to grow for at least 10 yearsCompared to forecasts that actually predicted a slowdown some time ago.
fitness? Measuring how good you are
Our approach is a scientist – explains the professor Luciano Petronero, head of the Fermi Center – The problem of many economists analyzing things through the lens of the ideological candidate. We studied a lot of data, but the most important one is about exports: If you produce a high-end smartphone, you are more competitive than if you make a water bottle. The first can be done by a few, and the second by all. Intriguingly, while it is closely related to the ability to create wealth, high levels of physical fitness do not necessarily correlate with high GDP. Take Saudi Arabia for example – explains Petronero – very rich thanks to oil, but very little diversified economy and low industrial capacity. Thus it is a low fitness value, which basically measures ‘how good you are’. The ability to engage in complex productions also provides information on the level of education and work, for example, because it combines the skills necessary to achieve them. In short, according to the team of researchers from the capital, the success of any country is given by an indicator that expresses the diversity of production, which is weighed by its complexity. System works and how: We are able to provide more accurate GDP forecasts from the IMFFitness guaranteed.
France, Germany and Japan at the top, the Lombardy Well
Recent studies by Fermi Center researchers – who have returned to the historic Roman site of Via Panesperna since 2019 – are able, among other things, to provide indicators on the environmental sustainability of different economies and on the most promising sectors. For the future: Among these are green technologies related to road transport and CO2 conversion. The most competitive countries in the world from a green point of view are Japan, France and Germany The researcher explains Angelica Spardella -. China, Brazil and Spain are on the rise, while the US and UK have taken a step back. Is it Italy? Halfway through the Ford: to regions like Emilia-Romagna and – above all – Lombardywhich sets values in line with the best European regions, accompanied by the reality of the south that requires greater investments in terms of green production: Italian growth can pass not only from haute couture and tourism – continues Spardella – but must provide a policy to define an appropriate industrial plan with strategic needs for the world 4.0.