“Putin is not satisfied with China. He knows that he will not save him from penalties »- Corriere.it

from Guido Santificio

Kong Chan, founder of think tank Anbound, explains why Xinhua gave voice to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuliba and his accusations against Russia. Kyiv can not agree to the loss of its territory. I managed to point out that war is not in Beijing’s interest

there encoded signal Beijing in Moscow in the interview with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister published by the Chinese state agency Xinhua? Giving the floor to Kiev is a novelty for China of unlimited friendship with Russia. In response to Xinhua, Dmytro Kuleba denounced the Russian invasion, bombings and killing of civilians, and demanded that China guarantee Ukraine’s security when a ceasefire is reached. Reading in Chinese, uncensored, Kyiv’s attitude and words like invasion and aggression, which Xi Jinping has always avoided, is great (even if ordinary Chinese have other things to do than read and analyze Xinhua, and Beijing scholars are the ones to ask themselves).

As for the Chinese party state, which is closely monitoring Xinhua, Could giving a voice to Ukraine under attack be a diplomatic breakthrough?

Reply from Beijing Kong Chanfounder of the Chinese think tank Anbound, which is independent but also provides its geopolitical and macroeconomic analyzes to members of the government institution: Xinhua had to move on a tightropeas evidenced by the fact that on the same day he also gave an interview to the Russian Sergey Lavrov. But even if giving the floor to Kiev was indeed a nod to Moscow, nothing would change because China’s vision had crystallized in the West.

Latest news about the war in Ukraine

In the record there is a declaration of friendship without borders between China and Russia…
Indeed, Vladimir Putin has publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with China. He said Russia could not put all its cards on Beijing to avoid the impact of Western sanctions. Putin is well aware that many Chinese companies do not want to risk “secondary sanctions” and do not intend to be paid in rubles, which can be quickly devalued. The business community in Beijing is turning cautiously toward Russia.

What is your opinion of Ukraine’s position? Do you think he really wants to negotiate with Russia?

Kyiv certainly wants to discuss a ceasefire. Their cities are in ruins, women and children are refugees all over the world. The problem is that Ukraine cannot accept the loss of part of its territory as a condition for the suspension of hostilities. In this case it will render all the sacrifices made so far useless and meaningless.

But can Beijing guarantee Ukraine’s security after a ceasefire?
In my opinion no. Maybe he could have done that in the past. But China is now at war with the Covid-19 outbreak, the impact on the robust economy, and growth is in doubt. Then the European issues that Beijing sees seem confused. The West says that China is an ally of Moscow, even if Germany has bought much more Russian gas than China has received after careful inspection since the beginning of the war: 9.1 billion euros; 6 billion Chinese… I believe that China will continue to make efforts to restore peace. I do not rule out further Chinese activity in the future, but I doubt the effectiveness of mediation at this stage of the war: everyone knows the diplomatic style of Moscow and everyone manages to know the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people. I believe that the violence of the confrontation will eventually lead to a rethinking of geopolitical relations: the world will accept Russia’s status as a great power and the Ukrainian people will respect what they deserve.

“This war is not in line with China’s interests. The world food crisis and economic problems pose a serious threat to China. They also considered that Russia is crippling the Belt and Road Initiative launched by your leadership,” the Ukrainian minister said in an interview with Xinhua. Silk, editor). In your opinion, is Kuleba right in this consideration?

I’m thinking the same way. Anyone who knows Chinese economic data can only agree with Minister Kuleba. I must say that I respect some of the Ukrainian officials who were able to closely follow developments in China during their wartime occupation. But even Chinese diplomats, such as the ambassador to the United States, have made it clear that this conflict is not in our best interests. The value of trade between China and Russia is $147 billion, which is only 2.4% of China’s foreign trade. Putin has said several times that he would like to increase bilateral trade to $200 billion, but Beijing did not announce the same goal, only talking about increasing trade. After all, I noticed that Russia does not produce much besides oil and gas … And the Chinese do not like vodka.

In addition to consulting on geopolitical issues, Chan deals with information analysis methodologies. What echoes did Xinhua’s parallel interviews with enemy diplomats make in China?
Just perform an internet search with the terms “Kuleba and Xinhua” in Chinese characters to get over 8.3 million results. With “Lavrov and Xinhua” the number reaches 1.1 million. Seven times more interested in the interview with the Ukrainian minister. But this has nothing to do with China or the Chinese press, just an indication that the speech of the Russian minister was repeating well-known and unexciting positions, while the Ukrainian minister did an excellent job in the media.

May 4, 2022 (change on May 4, 2022 | 15:57)

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