The majority of Emmanuel Macron is trembling: the “tribus” of the radical Gauche, Jean-Luc Melenchon, collected – in the first round of the legislatures – more votes with his Nubian coalition (between 25 and 26.2% according to polling institutes ) in relation to the government parties combined under the name of the band ! (25-25.8%). Quote 341 – as in Macron’s first term – seems very far away today: the gap for the government is 275-310 seats as expected, with an absolute majority at 289. Nupes, the unified brute, is at 190-210. Excited, his voice low for once, the seventy-year-old Melenchon, who managed to gather under the banner of La France Insoumise from socialists to greens, to communists, issued an “appeal to the people”: “For the first time – as he said – the president He wins the elections and fails the parliamentary elections. The president is beaten and defeated. Now I appeal to the people, get yourselves at the polls next Sunday.”
With a turnout not so low in history, between 47 and 47.5%, a new negative record, the key to victory actually lies in the “pool of votes” each party can count on. Traditionally, the suffrage reserve in the French legislative system is on the side of the centrist parties when they deal, as in the present case, with two “extreme” parties on the left and the right.
National Rally candidates received between 18.5 and 19.8%, without taking advantage of Marine Le Pen’s result in the presidential election, who alone received more than 40% of the vote in the ballot against Macron. And after reducing the mechanism in force to just 8 deputies in 2017, the far-right party will be able to count between 15 and 30 deputies. Le Pen was elected in the first round in her northern constituency, Pas-de-Calais, with 55% of the vote. The right-wing party and heir to neo-Galcanism, the Républicains, is losing its role as the first opposition group to the Assemblée Nationale, which appears to confirm the heavy defeat of its presidential candidate, Valérie Pecres, with a score of between 11.6% and 14%. . “We need a strong and clear majority,” said Elizabeth Bourne, the Prime Minister appointed by the Ensemble Alliance, calmly. Speak on behalf of the government coalition after the elections.
The goal of the Macron team is to obtain an absolute majority that will allow them to implement the ambitious reforms outlined in the election campaign. In particular, the one who has never succeeded in France, raised the required retirement age to 65. Analysts said that Macron’s government would be “paralyzed” if it negotiated any bill with other forces in Parliament. Considering that the first opposition group will be the leftist coalition, which has exactly the opposite ambition for pensions: to reduce the retirement age from 62 to 60 currently. But the final word will come next Sunday with the second round.