In Italy is the eve of a summer wave? –

From Christina Maroney

The infection rate is rising and hospitalizations are also increasing. Pregliasco: “A strenuous trend for 3-4 weeks, possible up to 100,000 cases per day.” In most cases, symptoms are mild, but beware of fragile symptoms

After Portugal, the United Kingdom and Germany (at a rate of 472 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Covid is also raising its head in Italy. Indeed, in recent days, the incidence of cases per 100,000 residents in most regions has increased at an average rate 222 cases per 100,000 residents Compared to 207 in the previous week and a Rt to climb Today, it is touching 1.28, according to the latest report from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità.

The latest bulletin also indicates an increase in hospitalizations required (+19%) and intensive care (+6%). To provoke the experts The new spread of the virus is the omicron sub-variants, which are characterized by high transmissibility. So the new sub-variables BA.4 and BA.5 (and daughter BA 5.1) will be a new infection (In Italy, the most recent monitoring spoke of 0.4% but the number is significantly underestimated because monitoring in our country is low).

As of June 6, the curve in Italy is on the rise. In Lombardy, the seven-day increase is close to 48 percent, and it also occurs in other regions. The latest rise is very recent: on Friday, new positives in Milan (1095) were nearly five times more than on Friday of the previous week (261) and the number of hospitalizations increased slightly. According to the latest ECDC report, the BA.4 and BA.5 variants will become dominant across the EU due to their growth advantage.

What’s going on

In recent weeks, there has been progress in reopening, in abandoning masks and seeking more normalcy but no particular events such as the farewell of masks, the start of schools or large gatherings that partially justified other waves have been recorded. “It is clear that the more contagious new variants such as Omicron 5. This is associated with reduced efficacy of vaccines over time and decreased immunity from previous infections, at least in cases of infection, and consequent infections, among other things that have been underestimated because many people use “do-it-yourself” tampons without recording positivity» says the virologist Fabrizio BrigliascoMedical Director of the Galeazzi Institute of Milan.


In Italy we are talking about 6.3% of infections But it is a fact that has been underestimated not only because not everyone who shows symptoms chooses to swab, but also because many people are asymptomatic and do not realize they have been infected.

The Spike protein mutations Variants of BA.5 and BA.4 yield Virus most capable of circumventing vaccine-induced immunity
. “And that’s why we are twice as likely to catch Covid-19 today than we were four months ago,” he says. Mansour AmijiProfessor in the Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences at Northeastern University, USA. “If you have Omicron 2, this does not prevent you from developing BA-4 or BA-5he adds Neil ManyarProfessor in the Department of Health Sciences at the same university. “This does not mean that we should be afraid of getting infected again, but it does mean that we have to bear in mind that just because you have had Covid once, it does not mean that you will not have it again in a month or two or three months, Because there are these different sub-variables that are being traded.”

low immunity

in South AfricaBA.4 and BA.5 were responsible for the second wave of Omicron infections that began in early May, which now appears to have died out. However, we know that South Africa, like Portugal, is another country hard hit by the new wave despite its very high vaccination rate.not hit by Omicron 2 It happened in the UK and Italy as well. This position gave scientists hope that higher levels of immunity from BA.2 infection and booster vaccines might be sufficient to prevent infection from the new variants. but with low immunity From the third dose of the vaccine in most populations and the fourth dose given only to the weakest, are the elements that… It does not necessarily guarantee protection. Likewise, recent infection with BA.1 or BA.2 does not necessarily guarantee protection from BA.4 or BA.5. According to research published in Sciences On Tuesday, natural infection with omicron does not produce a strong immune response, regardless of whether scientists are looking for antibodies or T cells, which means People who have already recovered from omicron infection can quickly become infected. Hybrid immunity, i.e. caused by vaccine and infection, provides better protection and this should make new infections less severe.

New summer wave?

To understand if we are facing a new wave Longer observation period required And check the direction of the infection curve. In Italy, compared to other European countries, a hot climate can help mitigate risks because less time is spent indoors, with most infections occurring via aerosols. “However, the start of the holiday, less use of masks and lower protection against vaccines may prompt a new wave of summer infections in Italy as well, Early with this forecast in the fall, which is likely to replace the influenza pandemic. I expect up to 100,000 infections a day revealed by bulletinsbut hopefully without serious consequences for hospitalization because most people have been vaccinated or infected, and have acquired a certain immunity “warns Brigliasco:”Mathematical models show us an increasing trend over the next 3-4 weeks

infection and disease

Infection does not necessarily mean disease. As well as with regard to the risk of BA.5 Symptoms and severity of infection are similar to those of BA.2as emerging from the real world thanks to information from South Africa, the country where more cases of the new variant have been recorded so far. It manifests in most cases as a cold, sore throat and runny nose, sometimes with mild fever and joint pain.. “In a society like the Italian population, where the component of the elderly and the vulnerable can in no way be neglected, we must remain extremely vigilant because a new wave can still restore health services, fortunately now no longer solely dedicated to Covid, in an emergency.

Jun 15, 2022 (change on Jun 15, 2022 | 17:13)

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