Macron risks playing for a second term

The second round of legislative elections will be held on Sunday in France, and it will be the fourth polling in two months, after the first two rounds of the presidential elections and the first round of legislative elections held on June 12. The crucial decision will also be to allocate the overwhelming majority of seats to the National Assembly, the only elected chamber of the French Parliament. And for the first time in years, there is a real risk that the results will lead to a very problematic situation for the current president, Emmanuel Macron, who has just been re-elected for a second term.

The 577 members of the National Assembly are elected in single-member constituencies. In each college, only one candidate is elected, and wins the first round if he or she receives 50 percent plus one of the votes cast by at least 25 percent of the registered voters and electricians. In the first round of this election, it only happened in 5 cases: the remaining 572 seats will therefore be decided on Sunday.

Macron’s problem stems from the fact that, based on an analysis by the prestigious polling institute Ipsos Ensemble! , the coalition it supports, is likely to win between 255 and 295 seats. The absolute majority threshold is 289 seats: If Ensemble! He will get little, and this means that Macron will not be able to govern by relying solely on his own forces, but will have to look for allies to form a coalition in Parliament.

It’s a scenario that hasn’t happened since 2002: in fact, the results of the last four legislative elections (2002, 2007, 2012, 2017) were “confirmative”: that is, following the result of the previous month’s presidential election, the president-elect and his party awarded a majority of seats in Parliament as well.

France 24 Write it in the case of Ensemble! Failing to secure at least 289 seats, “Macron will likely have to call on other parties, and almost certainly the Republicans, the centre-right, to form a coalition.” It’s possible that if that were the case, the Republicans would ask for something in return, like some ministries and changes to the government’s program.

Macron will have two other less viable ways: try to get the support of individual MPs in order to seize control of 289 without having to embark on a structural alliance with the Republicans, or even give up the majority and agree on time. …turn with the center right or with the center left to pass its most important reforms. It could ask for center-right support for its own economic reforms, for example, and center-left support for measures such as welfare expansion: with a real risk, however, of being bogged down in endless negotiations for every major point on its agenda.

Why Echos He also points out that in the case of a minority government, Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne, who took office just a month ago, won’t be sure to re-emphasize: other parties can ask Macron to point to a different figure, less connected to him and to the band!

For Macron, there is another, greater danger, the so-called “coexistence”, which occurs when the parliamentary majority and the president belong to two different camps. Since 2000, that is, since legislative elections are fixed after presidential elections, “coexistence” has never occurred because in legislative elections voters tend to reward the coalition of the newly elected president.

But in French history it has happened at least three times that the president and parliament, and thus the government, were at odds. The first occurred between 1986 and 1988, when President François Mitterrand, a Socialist, and the Prime Minister elected by Parliament, Jacques Chirac, were Republicans.

Le Monde He says that the first “coexistence” was particularly stormy: in these two years Mitterrand was giving press conferences in which he openly criticized the decisions made by Chirac and his government. It is not unreasonable to imagine such a thing in the event that the Alliance wins the second round of management. Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale (NUPES) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the most famous leader of the radical left.

However, at the moment, this seems a long way off: according to Ipsos estimates, NUPES should get between 150 and 190 deputies on Sunday, a dozen less than the group!

Another political problem, for Macron, may finally be the defeat of some of his ministers: second Radio France International At least three of them are at high risk of not getting a seat in the National Assembly, which could lead to their resignation. They are Minister for European Affairs Clement Bonn, Minister for Environmental Transformation Amelie de Montchalin and Stanislas Guerini, in addition to being Minister of Public Services, he is also the President of La République En Marche! Macron’s party.

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