No opening to negotiations, ever-rising tones on both fronts, and a strong suspicion that the conflict in Ukraine – in a sense – is already masking the true “final” battle between Uses And the China: All items that indicate this, along with the slow motion of field operations The war, unfortunately, will go on for a long time. At least until 2023, if not beyond.
NATO allies believe that the conflict in Ukraine will continue over the next few months and may continue until 2023, according to sources from the White House.
Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his goal of capturing a significant part of the territory of Ukraine, but at the moment the military forces of Moscow are so weakened by the fighting that they can only progress slowly. This means that the war can go on for a long time. This is the assessment of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, Avril HainesSo the invasion will continue “for a long time”.
“We sense a rift between Putin’s short-term military objectives in this region and his military capabilities,” Haines said in a speech at a conference organized by the Commerce Department. “A mismatch between his ambitions and what the military can achieve.”
Putin is in no hurry
The Russian President, at the conclusion of his visit to Ashgabat, where he went to Caspian Sea summitHe reiterated that the operation continues “quietly and harmoniously, the military forces are advancing and reaching the targets assigned to them as targets” and thus “everything is going as planned.”
“There is no need to set a date to complete the process. I never talk about this, since this is real life, it is okay to limit them to deadlines, ”says Putin quoted by TASS, only to indicate that this date “is connected with the intensity of hostilities, which, in turn, are connected with possible victims.” “The most important thing to think about is protecting the lives of our children there,” he stressed.
Outlook – Perspectives
The outlook is not positive. Three scenarios: More likely is a slow-moving conflict, in which Russia was able to take “gradual steps, but without breakthrough”.
Other possibilities include a major achievement by Russia or front-line stability, with the Ukrainians able to advance, albeit slightly. Each of these three scenarios sees Russia becoming more dependent on “asymmetric tools” to confront its enemies (cyber attacks, control of energy resources, and even nuclear weapons).