Covid, the positives are more than a million, but for experts it is at least a triple – Health

71,947 new infections of the covid virus were recorded during the past 24 hours, According to the data of the Ministry of Health. A number that brings current positives to more than 1 million (1,037,511). Yesterday 84,700 people were injured. The victims instead 57Compared to 63 yesterday. A total of 262,557 antigens and molecular swabs were taken, with a positivity rate of 27.4%, a slight increase compared to 26% yesterday. 291 patients were hospitalized in intensive care, 16 more than yesterday. The number of daily admissions is 40. The number of patients treated in the hospital in regular wards is 7,212, 177 more than yesterday.

expert opinion – The true cases of Covid-19 in Italy could be equal to 5% of the population, or about 3 million: this is a possible estimate, according to Epidemiologist Carlo La Vecchia, Professor of medical statistics at the University of Milan. “If we think about an estimate of real cases, it will likely happen today At least 5% of Italians are positive.”La Vecchia told ANSA. A ratio that translates to “a number between 2 and 4 million individuals, possibly about 3 million”.

For one million known cases, there would thus be “about two million unrecorded cases, possibly with little or no symptoms”. This situation is a consequence of the fact that the Omicron BA.5 sub-variant “is one of the most infectious viruses of all time”, with a base reproduction number R0 of about 20″. This means that each infected individual can cause an average of 20 new infections, and this “makes tracing nearly impossible”, notes La Vecchia. 19 in Italy began to rise for about a month, with an increase By 28% recorded in the first week of June up to +60% in the third week, followed by an increase of 53%: “In light of this data, we are starting to see the leveling of recorded injuries, but the real injuries are much larger.” This is indicated, for example , with a positive rate of up to 27%, which results from the ratio between the number of cases and tests, which is about 300,000 cases per day.” Low compared to a million per day in January. To make them – said the expert – are asymptomatic and those who have to come out of quarantine. ” Also in light of this data, it is clear that the 1 million cases of Covid-19 recorded in Italy are far from reality. As for hospitalizations, according to La Vecchia, the numbers are still far from the threshold values: more than 7,000 in regular wards correspond to about 10% of available beds, and 275 in intensive care units occupy about 3% of available beds. The weekly death rate is 60, which is equivalent to 3% of all deaths in Italy. As for the deaths, as in the hospital, “they happen in part from other causes, and then they have Covid as well.”

one summer wave – This summer wave of Covid-19 is certainly ‘single’, with a significant spread of SarsCoV2 and a gradual increase in cases: a typical trend of an ongoing epidemic and away from the endemic phase. This was revealed by epidemiologist Carlo La Vecchia, professor of medical statistics at the University of Milan. “Seeing such a severe epidemic in the summer is unique. We know – as the expert told ANSA – that summer makes transmission of respiratory viruses more difficult, but what happens reflects how contagious this virus is.” So much so that for another example of an epidemic caused by such a powerful respiratory virus during the summer, we need to go back to the first wave of Spagnola, for which, however, we have no data on infection. The expert added that it is currently difficult to make predictions about the progress of the epidemic. The wave caused by the arrival of Omicron in January, which was still in the Delta, led to 20,000 hospitalizations; The second wave, in March, at around 10,000: “If things go now as in March, this new wave may begin to settle in the next few weeks, around mid-July,” La Vecchia noted. But we have to deal with the anomaly of the high prevalence of the virus in the summer. On the other hand, if the summer heat can still prevent the virus that is transmitted very easily”, on the other hand, not using masks and reopening everything helps spread a virus so contagious that it is compared to measles. It is difficult to be able to use all Containment measures: either they are used in a strict way, or – he noted – we have to live with the virus.” However, we are not in an epidemic situation because “endemicity means there is a low case of the spread of the virus, which has not been eradicated. However, we are now seeing ongoing epidemic peaks.” He concluded that even this wave caused by Omicron BA.5, “could run out in two or three months, and the problem is knowing what will happen with the arrival of autumn and the appearance of any new variables.”

Leave a Comment