How will the war in Ukraine continue now? –

The conquests of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk represented a political and military victory: important developments marked by a series of points in a conflict full of variables

Represents the Russian conquest of Severodonetsk and Lychansk political and military victory. These are important developments marked by a series of points in a still protracted struggle, full of variables.

• Moscow is taking another step towards a declared goal, which is the control of the Donbass River. And it takes another part of the land. Progress was expected, not surprising, perhaps more difficulties were expected. Vladimir Putin, having received the report from Defense Minister Shoigu, after the inspection of the front, gave new orders. The troops that took part in the mission in Luhansk must take a break While the eastern and western groups must continue operations until the set goals are reached. The leader specified – according to the media – that Generals Suvorukin and Labin would have to report to him directly, without calling General Zedko.

The invaders kept a slow pace in the march. The hammer and the anvil worked, that is, a prolonged bombardment with artillery, aircraft, mortars and rockets. The old and new means that finally broke down the defenses. Compared to defenders, they had a significant advantage in saving ammunition.

The next stations could be Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut. Many expected the same tactic, because the Russians when they used the others revealed their side. After every success of the attackers one wonders if they have the resources, so far the answer has been yes. The losses did not stop it, their arsenal is still full of means. Although some of them are old – T-62 tanks have been seen – they are still enough to maintain pressure. We’ll see if Putin’s rulings slow down. Cruise missile strikes on civilian and military targets are always large and large-scale: Here too the old grenade scheme sometimes returns, but in order to perform a function. There is no shortage of pessimistic forecasts about production capacity from Russia: some Western observers believe it has reached its limit. If they are right, the future will tell.

Perhaps the Ukrainians could have left the very open earlierPre-war scenarios would have suggested this, but they chose a strategy aimed at slowing the attackers down and gaining time. Effective way It took two months for the military to get partial results. Kyiv believes it can regroup by forming new units with NATO help. Some have already been used, others still need training. The increased use of 155 mm Western long calibers should partially solve the ammunition shortage. The principle of available quantity applies, which had a positive effect on Moscow.

In recent weeks, Zelensky’s soldiers have shown that if they have enough systems With deep ranges they can destroy opposing deposits, strike the rear, and even hit the Russian lands. Proof of this is on the naval front, where Moscow has – in theory – complete supremacy thanks to the Black Sea Fleet. Despite this, Putin was forced to abandon Snake Island and move the amphibious task force away from Odessa. Thanks to the Ukrainian capability, but also because of the anti-ship missilesBig guns, drone attack. A denial of those who assert that the means cannot influence, at least in some situations. It is also clear that the scarcity of anti-aircraft equipment made it possible to limit only partially the timid Russian aviation, to the extent that it is active. On the other hand, the Russian missile shield has proven effective precisely in the Donbass.

Drones played their part, they were the heroines of raids and reconnaissance to drive a fire. In the first part, they moved relatively unobtrusively, after which many of them were neutralized, also by electronic countermeasures (especially by the invaders). So dangerous effect Ukrainian communications are poorly protected.

Observers expected a reverse move by Ukraine in the southPossible attack in the occupied Kherson region. Procedure Also waiting from Russia Which moved units and fortified positions.

Jul 4, 2022 (change 4 Jul 2022 | 19:52)

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