When will the armistice be negotiated? – Corriere.it

twice Henry Kissinger He said something that seemed off-axis from the G7 line on Ukraine. Over a month ago in Davos Former United States Secretary of State, now nearly 100 years old, He pointed out that peace negotiations should start by the end of July “before there are uprisings and tensions that may not be overcome.” Then Kissinger added a sentence that seemed to call for Kyiv to give up Crimea and the pseudo-republics of Donetsk and Lugansk:Ideally the situation should return to the current situation (On Feb 24, so). I think that continuing the war after that point will turn it into a war not for the freedom of Ukraine, but against Russia.” Jerry KasparovThe great Russian opponent replied, that this idea had already been proven wrong: Granting land to the Kremlin “unsustainable”Because in the long run, dictators need to struggle.” truly Leaving him from Crimea in 2014 heightened the thirst for aggression by Vladimir Putin.

However, Kissinger returned to the topic last week with Luigi Ippolito Del courier. He said the invasion of Ukraine should be defeated, “not Russia as a country” We must “return to the historical path for which Russia is part of the European systemHe continued: “We are coming to a time when we need to Addressing the issue of the end of the war in terms of political objectives As well as the military. You cannot continue to fight without a goal.”

What does Kissinger mean? No doubt he also sees the difficulties Ukraine now finds itself facing. The Russian army returned to Caesarean Tactics to make the ground scorched by artillery and only then to advance with the infantry; He conquered Lugansk and is now standing Penetrates deep into Donetsk. Maybe the Ukrainians will try it A counterattack on the south with missile launchers from the United States. Meanwhile, Russian air missions, between forty and fifty days a day, destroy large quantities of weapons supplied by the Westerners and cause Kyiv army losses: By some estimates, Up to 40% of Ukrainian soldiers were killed Or he could no longer fight (hundreds of thousands of other men in the General Order Corps would need training to go to war).

Putin made huge mistakes in the winter, but unfortunately none of his current moves appear random. Missiles on supermarkets or buildings in Kyiv, Kramatorsk or Odessa terrorize civilians, but also Raising the psychological (and insurance) costs for governments And Western companies that promise to rebuild Ukraine. Russification in the occupied territories is a precursor to Annexation attempt of harmful legal value: For Moscow, any counterattack in the Donbass would then become an attack on the territory of Russia itself, and thus would call into question the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.

The Kremlin is also paying a heavy priceOf course: some traces of Western sanctions are starting to show. Car production in Russia fell by 97%Russian interbank loans increased by 27%. But it may not be the time for Russia’s economic catastrophe tomorrow. A veteran of the Moscow oil industry recently fled abroad, Sergey Vakulenkoexplain to courier that Time is of the essence In the economic war between Russia and Europe. In the short term, Putin’s logic reduces gas supplies to Europeans In order to cause inflation, rationing in the winter, and thus hostility in public opinion towards politicians if they support Ukraine. It’s no accident The French government has submitted a bill allowing it to confiscate gas stations in the event of an emergency. In the same scenario, In Berlin the 1960 standard was revived To allow the government to control all of the national industry and to determine which sectors should slow down or stop. The question of how to manage potential supply crises Hence, it will also be held in Italy in the coming months.

Only in a year or two does the balance of power reverse. Europe will replace Russian gas. And the shortage of industrial components caused by the sanctions will lead to time to start playing against Moscow, seriously damaging its production system. So the sand flow in the hourglass plays Putin’s role in the next nine or ten monthsagainst him later. Under these conditions, European governments have to answer the most vexing question today: Do they really believe that only Volodymyr Zelensky has the right to address the question of when and how to pursue a cease-fire? Mario Draghi summed up the G7 position a few days ago: “If there is a desire to negotiate, we are ready.” It seems clear that It will be very difficult to restore the lands that have already been completed under Russian control And one deceives oneself that he is able to do it now, he can only bring more blood. It seems equally clear that acknowledging its invasion today will only give Putin time and incentive to prepare new ones tomorrow. Between these two assumptions it is difficult to refute, but they are incompatible, The most difficult task for Europeans in the coming months and years is set: to keep sanctions tight, and isolate Russia until the cost of its options becomes unbearable.. After wanting to return to work as usual Just around the corner: Draghi is the only European leader who has said his country will no longer buy Russian energyAs long as Putin stays in the Kremlin.

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