What happens if Putin turns off the gas taps?

Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin uses energy as a weapon to blackmail Europe. The Old Continent cannot be unprepared for the prospect of Russia cutting off gas supplies “completely”. This is the warning of Ursula von der Leyen That opening the scenario so far is only an extreme hypothesis, he declared: “UNHCR is already working on a contingency plan which will be provided, along with the tools to implement it, by mid-July.” In addition, the President of the European Commission revealed how “although Member States have national contingency plans already in place at this juncture, the European coordination and joint action“.

gas price ceiling

The first issue that arises concerns Delays accumulated in recent months. Urgent demands of the Prime Minister Mario Draghi For an extraordinary council already meeting before the summer, they already take on the flavor of regret as to what they could have expected and they did not want to expect. Gas price cap is one of the necessary measures But it is clear that in the case of complete shutdown of the gas taps by Putin, all the supposed operations Getting to zero dependence on Moscow.

What happens if Putin turns off the taps?

The next question is What happens in the event of a rapid supply stop? First of all, collect National needs in a generalized problem at the European level The rush to supply from alternative channels and sources risks turning into intense competition among the member states themselves. We start from different positions. There are countries like Germany and Italy, more dependent on Russia For others and all national plans, which have so far been calibrated to the remaining but significant shares of Russian gas, must be reconsidered. The immediate effect may be the need for rSignificantly reduce consumption, as well as with rationing measures.

The importance of the time factor

The main factor remains time. If Putin decides to turn off the taps immediatelyThe race must be done Hurry to fill the stores in the light of winter. And if the supplies are zero, it will be necessary to increase other imports proportionately, Reducing national production and consumption.

Calling for European Solidarity

Von der Leyen also says something else related. “We have to make sure of that, In case of severe difficulties, gas flows to the places where it is most needed. We have to offer European solidarity. We must protect the single market and industry value chains. “In one sentence, there are all the priorities that will be launched in the event of an interruption of Russian gas supplies. The key is European solidarity. As individual national plans compete with each other and to find a balance, coherent decisions are needed, and within a reasonable time, at the European level.

Italian contingency plan

The government has already prepared a Emergency plan for winter in case the Kremlin suddenly decides to cut gas exports Natural in Europe, including Italy. In the coming months, supplies will increase from Algeria and by ship in the form of liquefied natural gas, which is expected to arrive from Qatar and the United States. But at the same time, it is in Italy’s interest to work in advance to open new channels.

supplies from Mozambique

That’s why it becomes Basic Mozambique. In the north of the country, some of the world’s richest offshore gas fields have been identified. Eni Group has also been working here since 2006which has two franchises, one to exploit it alone and the other with the Americans in ExxonMobil. The first ships carrying LNG to sea will leave at the end of the yearor. But the quantities are not difficult to predict, opening up possible negotiations on subsequent supplies. It is clear that Sergio Mattarella does not deal with the matter, but with his visit, the President of the Republic has strengthened bilateral relations, anticipating a possible visit of Mario Draghi that could take place in September.

Mario Draghi’s work in Turkey

Mario Draghi addressed the issue of energy during his official visit to Turkey Also because there is a TANAP gas pipeline on Turkish soil which passes through the whole country from east to west and then connects to TAP. Thanks to this infrastructure, the Turkish infrastructure today represents the third gas supply route for our country after the flows from Algeria and Russia. On the opportunity to deepen relations, Erdogan pointed out Gas discovered by his country off the Black Sea in a field called SakaryaTo exploit it the Turkish president himself declared, Italy and Turkey “will cooperate to build a gas pipeline.”

Eni gas fields off the coast of Cyprus

But the talks were not conclusive regarding Node of Eni gas fields off the coast of CyprusThe six-legged dog group is working alongside other large companies around the Leviathan field, as well as the Eastmed pipeline project, which has been stranded by Turkish opposition. The issue of territorial disputes between Ankara, Athens and Nicosia is very complicated for Mario Draghi which are currently hindering the development of important projects in the pipeline.

Leave a Comment