Meteorology: August, an out-of-the-ordinary projection for the holidays, drawn up by the European Center; Updates
August offersI just arrived The new seasonal forecast for the European Center for Augustwith projections Rainfall And the Temperatures; Well, the trend is starting to cause concern, normal values are expected to come out.
Summer holidays are really at risk for Italians?
To answer this question we must rely on the so-called Long-Term Climate Outlook (August): Seasonal forecasts were once categorically unreliable and merely a subject of study and interest for curiosity and passion, now they are Valid instrument for scientific diagnosis, with critical contributions to long-term climate assessment. In Europe, the leader in this sector is the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting, ECMWFFrom Reading (UK).
It seems that between the end July start August The Afro-large high pressure fieldIt is destined to impose itself more and more on the Mediterranean basin. The latest offer of the European Center confirmation (map attached) A trend devoted to heat in the main period traditionally Italian holidays: Well, looks like we’ll have to deal with the temperatures pretty well Above average up to +5/6°C, especially in northern regions.
The disturbing fact is that this thermal anomaly affects almost the entire continent, from the Iberian Peninsula to Russia, underlining the extraordinary nature of this summer which is likely to be among the hottest on record in Europe.
For this reason, it is perfectly legitimate to talk about “riskConcretely, this translates to Frequent heat waves coming from the heart of Africa (Sahara desert), with peaks ready to spray over 35°C, especially in Val Badanain the interior of the two main islands And on the part of south central peninsula.
So why the word “risk”? These abnormal and red phases should be treated in the same way as “bad weather waves” because they can cause serious damage: prolonged droughtAnd the Health problems And last but not least the indirect danger extreme weather events. In fact, all this extra heat also increases the potential energy involved, as a result of hailstorms and storms whenever currents of fresh air can “penetrate” the anti-eddy shield. So it’s right to talk about vacations at risk, even if not exactly because of rain and thunderstorms, but for a different reason.
So summer should continue in this climate trend, with continuous flashes of hot air from Africa, as announced by the latest seasonal forecast by the very official. European Center.
Above average temperatures of +2/3°C in most parts of Italy (Source: ECMWF)